Publishing of the International Economic Outlook journal has ended at the beginnging of 2015. We will continue to analyse international prospects in ETLA’s other publications like Suhdanne and monthly Economic Prospects (in Finnish) reports as well as in analytical problem-orientated reports.
Kansainväliset Suhdanteet (International Economic Outlook) journal contains analysis of short-term economic developments and topical economic issues. A report contains forecasts of the 12 most important export partners of Finland and provides also forecasts of the international organizations and national research institutes as a comparison. The Economic developments of Russia and China are also reviewed.
At present, the journal as PDF file is available only in Finnish
World economic growth to stay slow for long time
Compared with the beginning of this century, when growth in the industriali sed countries was debt induced and as such unsustainable, world economic growth will stay slow for a lo ng time into the future.
During times of weak economic growth and slow inflation central banks will ke ep their policy rates low and continue their strong support for the markets using unconventional measures. Growth will resume slowly because of the efforts to reduce the incurred debts. The Euro Area and Japan went into a recession in the autumn of 2012. Thanks to the crisis-solving decisions reached in the Euro Area last autumn, the outlook is improving in this region providing the member countries continue to build trust and thus support growth. Japan’s new government seeks to boost the economy that suffers from the continuing deflation.
Debt consolidation in the industrialised countries will dampen growth for years to come. In China, sluggish export demand is dampening growth opportunities even though domestic demand is being strengthened. Emerging markets are the growth engines of global demand. China’s special status will strengthen in the short term even though its double-digit growth rates are a thing of the past. The rapid ageing of the Chinese population will slow down the new leadership’s ambitious goal of raising the people’s living standards significantly above developing country status during the next ten years.
Attachments:International Economic Outlook 4/12Register or order single copy in PDF-format.
Upturn in world economy postponed
World economic development has clearly worsened during the summer and early autumn. The dragging on and deepening of the Euro Area crisis that has held the area in a recession in practi-cal terms since the end of 2011 is clearly weakening economic development.
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Attachments:International Economic Outlook 3/12Register or order single copy in PDF-format.
Global long-term economic growth set to be slow
World economic growth has slowed down permanently. The massive levels of indebtedness in industrial-ised countries and the consolidation of public finances and partly private finances will slow down growth. Also population ageing in industrialised countries will have the same effect.
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Attachments:International Economic Outlook 2/12Register or order single copy in PDF-format.
Price of oil threat to the economic outlook
Generally speaking, world economic growth has been sluggish during the winter. In practice, the Euro Area is in a recession. China’s strong economic growth slowed down towards the end of 2011 and reached an 8 per cent rate when annualised. In the USA, GDP growth picked up at the end of the year, but the price of oil threatens the outlook.
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Attachments:International Economic Outlook 1/12Register or order single copy in PDF-format.